Good Saturday evening, everyone. Considering we’re in the middle of the summer season and we kicked off the month of August, we could be looking at hotter temperatures across the area. We normally should July and kick off August with highs into the 90s. Thanks to clouds and rain yesterday, we only topped out in the upper 70s at Joplin Regional and across much of the area. After a chilly start with lows around 60 this morning, we had an amazing Saturday with partly sunny skies and highs back in the lower to middle 80s.
Thankfully, our temperatures will stay warm but below normal as we wrap up the weekend on Sunday. After another nice and mild start in the middle 60s, we’ll have afternoon highs ready to bounce back into the lower to middle 80s for our Sunday.
If you noticed on the welcome mat, we’ll have to watch for some scattered t-storms during the afternoon ahead of us. While we see our last front well to our south and southeast, another one is ready to work out of northern Kansas.
Not only that, there’s a subtle shortwave rotating around the upper-low that’s parked over northern Illinois. We’ll take this upper-level setup for our Sunday because that keeps the 80s around to wrap up the weekend and the typical summer heat with the upper-level ridge off to our southwest.
While we’re not going to rule out a few showers and maybe an odd t-storm during part of the overnight, the overall trend is for everyone to have partly cloudy skies and a mild start by sunrise. We’ll start Sunday out with morning lows in the middle 60s across the area.
As we head into the afternoon, we’ll start things off with temperatures in the upper 70s by lunchtime. That’s also when the cold front will start to work in. Some areas will have a southwest wind to start the afternoon out while those sneaking behind the cold front will start to see their wind shift out of the northwest.
Even with a northwest wind kicking in for the afternoon, we’ll still see warm and nice temperatures across the area as highs climb into the lower to middle 80s. As the front and the upper wave work in, both will want to fire off some scattered t-storms for parts of the area during the afternoon. Anything that pops up, though, won’t turn into anything too strong.
We’ll start Sunday evening out with scattered t-storm chances as the front and the upper-level wave start to depart off to our southeast. Once both clear out far enough to our southeast by late Sunday night, we’ll see our rain chances drop off as we turn mild once again.
With a light north breeze behind the front working with partly cloudy skies, we’re looking at possibly another chilly morning as Monday lows drop back into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
A weak wave passing to our northeast on Monday could try to fire up a random shower or t-storm, but we’re looking at mainly a partly sunny and warm Monday to kick off the new work week. While we say warm, we’ll still have temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees below normal as highs only climb into the upper 70s!
We’ll do it again for Tuesday as the jet stream stays off to our southwest and keeps the summer ridge in the Southwest. That means we’ll start Tuesday off in the upper 50s and climb into the upper 70s once again under partly sunny skies.
As we start heading through the middle of the work week, the upper-level ridge will start to strengthen and head back our way. As long as we’re in the northwest flow of the jet and on the cooler side for Thursday, we’ll watch for isolated t-storms for Thursday as highs climb back into the middle 80s.
However, you know the summer heat has to eventually return. Mother Nature plans on doing just that as the upper-level ridge regains control as we head toward Friday and next weekend. Even with a chance for scattered t-storms to start Friday and Saturday out, we’ll see highs ready to climb back into the lower 90s.
With the first week of August showing us a switch between warm and hot temperatures, that actually sums up how the overall month is shaping up. For a look at how the month is shaping up, Doug has your long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Sunday!
Long range forecast through August:
August 9th-15th: Most of the week stays hot before we see a little cool-down by Friday and Saturday. The week starts dry before t-storm chances Wednesday through Friday.
August 16th-22nd: Warm temperatures for Sunday and Monday before the summer heat returns for the rest of the week. We see rain chances around for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and that weekend.
August 23rd-29th: Another warm start for Sunday and Monday before the heat returns for the rest of the week. T-storm chances are lined up for Sunday and for Thursday through Saturday.