The Nemenoff Report 07/30/2020
Financials: As of this writing (5:00am) Sept. bonds are 0’15 higher at 181’27, 10 Yr Notes 0’4 higher at 139’28.0 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’1 higher at 125’31.5. Yields are slightly lower at .12 for the 2 yr., 0.24 for the 5 yr. 0.56 for the 10 yr. and slightly higher on the 30 yr. at 1.26. Yesterday the FOMC left rates unchanged and warned of long term rates of near 0 for some time to come and cautioned of negative economic impact to the Covid virus. I still believe in the upside to these markets and the possibility of negative rates. Keep in mind we are near all time lows I yield of the 10 yr.note of 0.547. GNP and initial job claims this morning.
Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 0’4 lower at 326’0, Sept. Beans up 1’2 at 882’4 and Sept. Wheat don’t down 6’6 at 526’4. All down 10+ cents for the week. Near perfect growing weather and weak exports added pressure to these markets. Last weak I tried the long side of Corn on a break and will use a stop in the 320’0 area basis Dec.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have worked higher over the last week due to a constructive Cattle on Feed Report and and increased demand as evidenced by high select cuts of beer and lower choice prices. lower feed prices added pressure to the upside of feeders. All that being said I remain negative Feeders as long as Dec. Corn stays above 320’0.
Silver: Sept. Silver is 88 cents lower at 23.44 and up 1.00 for the week. Do ring the last week we saw a high of 26.27 and a low below 23.00. The high of 26,27 reeks of short covering. I will be a buyer below 20.00.
S&P’s: Sept. S&P’s are currently 30.00 lower at 3217.00 after closing 40.00 higher yesterday. Fears of a negative GDP number is pressuring the market this’s morning. I am a seller on sharp rallies.
Currencies: The Sept Euro is 9 lower at 1.17285, the Yen 4.5 lower at 0.95200, the Pound 377 higher at 1.3064 and the Dollar 5 higher at 93.485. We remain long the Euro long the Pound and short the Dollar Index. These positions are beyond my expectations. Use close stops to protect profits.
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About the author
Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc began his career as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Marc Nemenoff quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff’s responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co’s. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.
In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the CME and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations & Advertising, and Orientation & Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included: Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman’s Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.
In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.
Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.
Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.
Contact Marc Nemenoff: (800) 769-7021 or at firstname.lastname@example.org