Good Wednesday evening, everyone. The day started out with some isolated t-storms along and south of I-44 and ended with some more isolated t-storms sticking close to the interstate. While that meant the rain chances were confined to one part of the viewing area, we did see rain totals push to 0.2″ on average with heavier pockets of rain giving some spots up to 2 inches.
Even with the partly sunny skies and isolated t-storm chances around for the day, we went a bit hotter than the other day. After we got the chance to cool down in the lower 70s for a nice and mild morning, we saw highs push back into the middle 90s. Not only that, the dew points back in the upper 60s and lower 70s made it feel like we were pushing into the upper 90s and lower triple digits.
Even though we’ll start Thursday morning out on a quiet note, Mother Nature is all to eager to heat us up once again. Despite some isolated t-storms expected for the afternoon, we’ll have highs back in the lower 90s across the area.
Let’s break down the setup that will lead us to another hot Thursday with a few t-storms possible. Our stalled out front that was parked to the north during the day is ready to lift back to the north. That will keep the south and southeasterly breeze in place to help temperatures warm back up throughout the day. Note the cold front out to the northwest, though. That wants to try and change our forecast up as we head into next week.
Before that can happen, though, the jet stream is starting to lift back up to our north. That’s due to the upper-level ridge ready to build back in from the Southern Plains.
This time around, we’re staying quiet through the overnight and into Thursday morning. Under partly cloudy skies and a light southeast breeze, we’ll have morning lows drop back into the lower to middle 70s.
After our mild start in the morning, we’ll waste no time warming things up under partly sunny skies. We’ll have temperatures push into the upper 80s by lunchtime before everyone goes back into the lower 90s for the afternoon. With the humidity in play once again, it will feel like the middle to upper 90s during the afternoon. In addition, the heat and humidity could allow for a few isolated t-storms to pop up in a few random spots during the afternoon. Any t-storms that pop up will stay below severe levels but could certainly bring pockets of moderate to heavy rain.
Once we get past sunset, any t-storms that develop will fade away as we lose the heating of the day. We’ll keep partly cloudy skies around for a dry and mild start for Friday morning with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Once we get past another mild start for Friday morning, back into the heat and humidity we go for Friday afternoon. Highs will push back into the lower 90s with the humidity wanting to fire up some isolated t-storms in the afternoon.
The upper-level setup shows what will be in charge of our weather for the weekend. The upper-level ridge will be centered across the Central Plains this weekend. While this won’t completely shut off our chances for isolated random t-storms, this will keep any decent rain riding around the ridge off to our north. Plus, it will keep us hot and humid with highs pushing into the middle 90s and lows in the middle 70s.
Once we get into next Monday and the middle of next week, the upper-level ridge starts to shift back to the southwest. That will allow the jet stream to return the northwest flow right on top of the area. Not only will that allow some disturbances to start lining up along the jet, that will allow the cold front in the Pacific Northwest to head our way. That wants to bring in scattered t-storms for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. If we play our cards right, we may be able to get afternoon highs by Tuesday and Wednesday to drop back into the middle to upper 80s.
Even with the chance for the front to cool us down a little early next week, we’ll still end the month of July on a hot note. To see how we look for the end of July and much of August, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Long range forecast through July:
Next Thursday-Saturday: After our cold front works on through, we’ll stay dry for the rest of the week. Plus, the heat will start to build back in.
August 2nd-8th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday. Heating up for the middle of the week but back to warm to end the week with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
August 9th-15th: The first half of the week will be hot with thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This system will cool us down a bit for the second half of the week.
August 16th-22nd: The first half of the week will mainly warm as a storm system rolls through on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. Heating up late in the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.