This tropical system looks to strengthen bringing scattered showers this weekend.
As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is giving a tropical wave off the coast of Cuba a 40% chance at development. Moreover, this system is getting better organized and is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
If it does reach sustained winds of 39+ MPH, it will be named Gonzalo or Hanna. This will depend on if a storm in the far Atlantic Ocean gets better organized first.
A quick look at wind shear this morning shows more of it in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida. This ‘may’ slow down development. Something to watch.
This wave will race across the gulf reaching the Texas coast by Friday night. As it spends time over open water, models are confident in strengthening.
Moreover, the exact track and strength of this wave is still up in the air. It could end up anywhere from Corpus Christi to Louisiana.
Where exactly a defined low forms or an organized center will also help determine the path into Texas. Attached above is a model run (European model) and it shows what it may look like on Thursday night. This system is well defined and organized offshore moving closer to Matagorda Bay. We may even see it named by Thursday.
Remember, on the northeastern side of these storms is where the flood provoking rain is. Look at the next graphic. These are the forecast rain totals through Monday. Heavier totals northeast of Corpus Christi closer to Houston and Louisiana. Again, depending on where this tropical wave organizes will give us a better idea on where the rain will most likely fall. Timing and location are important.
These rain totals are subject to change through the week.
It gets the point across. With that being said, we’ll keep scattered showers in the forecast Friday, Saturday and into Sunday. Rain chances should trend down early next week as this system pushes northwest and inland.
Remember, July is just the start. Tropical waves continue to drive off the African coast and under right conditions, any of these can spin up into a storm or hurricane. Historically, August and September is when we see the most form.
Be prepared for this year’s hurricane season. It’s expected to be busy.